F1 odds · 2026
United States Grand Prix odds
Our data covers the United States Grand Prix in 2023, 2024 and 2025. The most recent race, in 2025 at Austin, was won by Max Verstappen. Max Verstappen has won it twice in that span. The 2026 edition is round 18 and runs at Austin, with the race weekend starting on 23 Oct 2026.
- Next race weekend
- 23 Oct 2026
- Circuit
- Austin
- Races in data
- 3
- Last winner
- Max Verstappen 2025
Race odds
Model-derived win, podium and points probabilities for the race ahead
Race preview
The United States Grand Prix race weekend starts on 23 Oct 2026, the eighteenth round of the 2026 season, at Austin, United States. Our model makes Lewis Hamilton the favourite for the race, giving a 29.9% chance of victory at fair odds of about 9/4. Max Verstappen is next on 12.0%.
Lewis Hamilton also tops the podium market, projected to finish in the top three 69.0% of the time. Further down the order, Kimi Antonelli stands out as a value pick: a 28.9% chance of a podium despite much longer win odds of 11/1.
Austin is a road circuit. These figures read only from recent on-track pace at comparable tracks, so treat them as a data-derived guide rather than a prediction or betting advice.
Open the interactive odds calculator to adjust how much each factor counts and watch the probabilities move.
Race markets
Fair odds are derived directly from the model probabilities (no bookmaker margin). Built from the 6 most recent race and qualifying sessions with lap data.
| # | Driver | Win | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lewis Hamilton HAM | 29.9% | 9/4 3.34 |
| 2 | Max Verstappen VER | 12.0% | 15/2 8.33 |
| 3 | Charles Leclerc LEC | 11.1% | 8/1 9.00 |
| 4 | Kimi Antonelli ANT | 8.7% | 11/1 11.52 |
| 5 | Lando Norris NOR | 6.2% | 16/1 16.05 |
| 6 | Oscar Piastri PIA | 4.8% | 20/1 20.63 |
| 7 | Liam Lawson LAW | 3.6% | 28/1 27.72 |
| 8 | Nico Hulkenberg HUL | 3.2% | 28/1 30.94 |
| 9 | Arvid Lindblad LIN | 2.9% | 33/1 34.99 |
| 10 | George Russell RUS | 2.8% | 33/1 36.29 |
| 11 | Oliver Bearman BEA | 2.6% | 40/1 39.13 |
| 12 | Isack Hadjar HAD | 2.5% | 40/1 40.06 |
| 13 | Pierre Gasly GAS | 2.4% | 40/1 41.30 |
| 14 | Franco Colapinto COL | 1.6% | 66/1 63.74 |
| 15 | Fernando Alonso ALO | 1.2% | 80/1 84.80 |
| 16 | Esteban Ocon OCO | 1.0% | 100/1 96.11 |
| 17 | Lance Stroll STR | 0.8% | 100/1 118.16 |
| 18 | 0.8% | 100/1 120.95 | |
| 19 | Sergio Perez PER | 0.5% | 200/1 185.73 |
| 20 | Valtteri Bottas BOT | 0.5% | 200/1 207.64 |
| 21 | Alexander Albon ALB | 0.4% | 250/1 242.08 |
| 22 | Carlos Sainz SAI | 0.4% | 250/1 275.07 |
Probability chart
Frequently asked questions
When is the United States Grand Prix 2026?
The United States Grand Prix race weekend starts on 23 Oct 2026 at Austin in Austin, United States.
Who is the favourite for the United States Grand Prix 2026?
Lewis Hamilton is our model's favourite with a 29.9% chance of winning, fair odds of about 9/4, ahead of Max Verstappen on 12.0%.
What are Lewis Hamilton's odds of winning the United States Grand Prix?
Our model gives Lewis Hamilton a 29.9% win probability, which is fair fractional odds of about 9/4 (decimal 3.34).
Who has the best chance of a podium at the United States Grand Prix?
Lewis Hamilton has the strongest podium chance at 69.0% (top-three finish).
Which driver is most likely to set the fastest lap?
Lewis Hamilton shows the best recent race pace in our sample, giving an estimated 21.3% chance of setting the fastest lap.
Who is the value pick for the United States Grand Prix 2026?
Kimi Antonelli looks the standout value: a 28.9% podium chance at much longer win odds of 11/1.
How are these United States Grand Prix odds calculated?
They come from a data-only model that rates every driver from the 6 most recent race and qualifying sessions with lap data, weighting recent and circuit-similar form, then converts those ratings into win, podium, top-six and top-ten probabilities. They are not betting advice.
Odds generated on .
What the probabilities mean
Each figure is our model's estimated chance of an outcome, not a forecast of the result. The model rates every driver from recent race and qualifying sessions, weighted towards the newest sessions and towards circuits like this one, then turns those ratings into win chances that add up to one across the field. Podium, top six and top ten chances come from simulating the race many times and counting how often each driver lands in that bracket. Fair odds turn the same probability into a price with no bookmaker margin, so a bookmaker's price on the same driver is usually shorter.
Read the full method on how our odds work, or change the weightings yourself in the odds calculator.
18+ only. These figures are a data-derived guide, not a prediction or betting advice. If you choose to bet, please gamble responsibly. Free, confidential support is available at BeGambleAware.org.
Form at this grand prix
Race finishing positions at the United States Grand Prix for every driver on the 2026 grid
| Driver | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli Mercedes | – | – | P13 | P13 |
| George Russell Mercedes | P5 | P6 | P6 | P5 |
| Lewis Hamilton Ferrari | – | DNF | P4 | P4 |
| Max Verstappen Red Bull Racing | P1 | P3 | P1 | P1 |
| Charles Leclerc Ferrari | – | P1 | P3 | P1 |
| Lando Norris McLaren | P2 | P4 | P2 | P2 |
| Oscar Piastri McLaren | DNF | P5 | P5 | P5 |
| Isack Hadjar Red Bull Racing | – | – | P16 | P16 |
| Liam Lawson Racing Bulls | – | P9 | P11 | P9 |
| Pierre Gasly Alpine | P6 | P12 | P19 | P6 |
| Arvid Lindblad Racing Bulls | – | – | – | – |
| Franco Colapinto Alpine | – | P10 | P17 | P10 |
| Oliver Bearman Haas F1 Team | – | – | P9 | P9 |
| Nico Hulkenberg Audi | P11 | P8 | P8 | P8 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto Audi | – | – | P18 | P18 |
| Esteban Ocon Haas F1 Team | DNF | P18 | P15 | P15 |
| Carlos Sainz Williams | P3 | P2 | DNF | P2 |
| Fernando Alonso Aston Martin | DNF | P13 | P10 | P10 |
| Alexander Albon Williams | P9 | P16 | P14 | P9 |
| Yuki Tsunoda Racing Bulls | P8 | P14 | P7 | P7 |
| Sergio Perez Cadillac | P4 | P7 | – | P4 |
| Lance Stroll Aston Martin | P7 | P15 | P12 | P7 |
| Valtteri Bottas Cadillac | P12 | P17 | – | P12 |
DNF: did not finish. DNS: did not start. DSQ: disqualified. A dash means the driver did not take part that year. Best is the highest classified finish.
United States Grand Prix winners and pole sitters
Every edition in our data, newest first
| Year | Circuit | Winner | Pole |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Austin | Race weekend starts 23 Oct 2026 | |
| 2025 | Austin | Max Verstappen | Max Verstappen |
| 2024 | Austin | Charles Leclerc | Lando Norris |
| 2023 | Austin | Max Verstappen | Charles Leclerc |